As I look into my crystal ball I see… When we meet again, things will be different.
The live events industry is forever changed. When we meet again, we will be more valued and more responsible than ever before. Today is my last day of mandatory quarantine, ironically it is Easter Sunday. At the end of today the rock is moved from my entrance and I am allowed to go to the grocery store, walk around for exercise and generally avoid people along with the rest of the world. Over the past two weeks I have been able to reflect on our current situation and compare it to my experiences during SARS and to look into my crystal ball to make a few hypothesizes as to what the future will hold for the live event industry.
The 2003 SARS pandemic had one major difference from Covid 2020 in that SARS was contained mainly in China, Hong Kong and in Toronto. However, if you look at the trajectory and the response to Covid and the pattern it followed it is fascinating how similar government’s response has been you can almost change the country names and the year and you get a complete repeat of history. The social and economic response has also followed a similar pattern with fear, panic buying and economic collapse although SARS was much more localised.
SARS left a legacy in Hong Kong that allowed it to deal with Covid in a manner that many have praised as being one of the most effective in the world. Some of the lasting effects included easier tracing of cluster infections, quarantine facilities, thermal imagining at ports, regular temperature checking, the acceptance of mask wearing and upgrading of general hygiene standards. Without reinfections from outside the borders Hong Kong very possibly would be Covid free by now.
“When will it end?” “When can we get back to normal?” My hope is with the warmer weather .. like SARS, Covid will mutate and fade away… Of course with SARS there was a fear it would come back the following flu season more virulent, luckily it didn’t. Covid, sadly is a different bug and seems to already have 3 strains creating ‘reinfections’ and a worry that herd immunity and immunisation may not be possible. Jury is still out, we will have to wait and see. Meanwhile, in the event world I keep seeing “rescheduled till October”… As we near October planning for events will be hesitant as people wait to see if it comes back next flu season (which starts around December). This is going to lead to incredibly short timelines, a shortage of venues, less available resources and a very busy end of the year. My Feng Shui master isn’t very hopeful for December, he said recently:
“Ching Ming Festival finally arrived today 4/4. This means the hard month of double bad stars 5 and 2 in East and South finally is over. I have updated my I Ching to check the situation of Coronavirus in China, USA and HK in the next 30 days. The outcome shows China is total combine with strong intelligence conquering weak Power. Meaning they are able to keep virus under control. As for USA Power line in advance, means situation still bad, but Intelligence strong although in retreat, so they are making progress but still have to fight hard. Regarding HK, Subject is Power meaning we are still sick, but Subject is strong and there is active Intelligence to resist the Power. So we are ok. Looking forward, another critical month will be December when we will again have double 5 in East and double 2 in South, and it is also month of Rat in year of Rat.” – Raymond Lo
I am seeing a start and stop. As event planning starts to return planners will be eager but cautious, things will hesitantly move forward leading to shorter production time and ruthless cancellation clauses. Here in China and Hong Kong we will have spurts of stop and go. The mainland has the authority and they have systems in place to stop people from moving unless they have a all clear signal on their social mobility app. Hong Kong is well practiced in monitoring health of large numbers. The US and Europe will be slower to get back to work as they will need to build their health risk management systems from scratch. In addition US will have issues getting insurance coverage.
In our new world risk management will have much stricter controls. Events (and the world in general) will have much better hygiene standards. Responsible event owners will be tracking guests before and after. This will mean handling more data and more communications between attendees and event organisers. With more personal data received, we will see stricter controls on how it is managed, GDPR will become the standard to match worldwide. Managers will need to be as communicative and open as possible. Communications to attendees will include requests to ‘stay at home, if not feeling well’ and allowing cancelations and refunds for health reasons. Onsite hand sanitizers and signage for health precautions will become commonplace. Temperature checks at registration will be standard. Thermal body scanners will be employed to scour crowds looking for anyone with a possible fever. Face masks will become widely accepted and anyone with a general cold will happily don a mask to protect those around.
In the medium term I see smaller cautious events with hybrid components. Generally much less of the ‘festivalisation’ trend we’ve seen over the past year with more focus on purpose, more seriousness less frivolity, more get business done and depart. Streaming events or having online components will no longer be a fun option used mainly for marketing they will become part of the mix. There will be more smaller parties in private spaces. More high end smaller gatherings with decision makers only.
We will loose many industry players as many companies will be forced to close. Many others will be forced to let go of staff, cutting off the arm to save the body. There will be many more freelancers out there eager for any work. Suppliers are going to get pinched with a mantras of ‘no budget’ alongside fierce competition. Those companies that do hang on, manage to keep staff and be flexible with their clients will start back with a great advantage and blossom.
The live event industry will become stronger, more unified as we join together to overcome every challenge. The world has been reminded just how social we humans are. Reminded how much we rely on connection with others and how we crave interaction. Our industry may be devastated at the moment, may never be the same however the world has noticed us. As we come back and meet again the world will appreciate what we do more than ever. #eventstrong
